@GRAFTRatings | The Spray | New: Projections | Full Fixture | Analytics | Archives: 2016 2017 | graft_tips.csv

Accuracy By Forecast Margin
forecast margin correct forecasts MoE actual average margin
0 - 515 /27 55.6% 23.3 -1.2
6 - 1118 /34 52.9% 25.5 6.1
12 - 1720 /30 66.7% 31.7 18.6
18 - 2311 /19 57.9% 28.7 2.6
24 - 2910 /16 62.5% 32.5 17.9
30 - 3516 /18 88.9% 24.2 41.6
36 - 4110 /12 83.3% 15.7 34.8
42 - 47 9 /10 90.0% 34.2 51.3
48 - 53 5 / 5100.0% 25.0 35.0
54 - 59 3 / 3100.0% 11.3 45.7
60 - 65 3 / 3100.0% 19.5 44.3
66 - 71 2 / 3 66.7% 61.1 25.7
Home MarginHome Win Probability-120-600+60+1200255075100
Club Analytics
pl % pts pyth (disc) >100 <60 w60+ l60+ w6- l6- am oam srat graft correct avg swing
1 RIC 20139.126461.1+0.71214011+27.5-0.2+273+29.118 2.0
2 WCE 20123.366054.3+1.4831010+17.2-2.0+152+14.214 2.7
3 GWS 20120.425452.7+0.3513110+15.1-3.0+121+16.315 2.8
4 HAW 20121.255253.2-0.3703030+15.8-0.5+154+12.211 2.9
5 COL 20118.305251.6+0.1912001+14.3-2.2+122+12.816 2.6
6 SYD 20110.245246.9+1.3511021+7.8+1.5+92+8.812 2.5
7 MEL 20131.474858.0-2.51224103+25.0-6.7+183+18.913 3.3
8 PAD 20113.944849.1-0.3340023+9.9-2.5+75+7.1 9 2.2
9 GEE 20117.194451.0-1.7612023+12.8+4.0+168+16.311 2.5
10 NME 20109.074446.1-0.5521131+7.3-3.5+38-2.112 3.0
11 ESS 20104.804443.3+0.2520101+4.0+0.5+45+10.711 3.1
12 ADE 2097.864038.5+0.4540122-1.9+3.6+18+3.910 2.5
13 FRE 2081.063225.7+1.6470210-17.1-0.3-174-24.915 2.7
14 WBD 2074.812821.0+1.7480211-23.8+2.8-210-15.215 2.6
15 STK 2073.861820.3-0.6391120-25.2+4.6-206-18.217 2.6
16 BRL 2089.241632.0-4.0531104-10.1+2.3-78-6.715 2.6
17 GCO 2061.041611.8+1.01110611-38.1+1.5-366-40.116 2.8
18 CAR 2060.31811.4-0.80100600-40.7-0.0-407-43.016 3.4

Consistency Graphs

These are an attempt to show how consistent a team's results have been for the season.
The y-axis represents the actual margin of that game.
The x-axis represents the difference in the combatants' season average margins ± the 12-point HGA where applicable.
They don't represent the GRAFT prediction at the time of the game - the season is taken as a whole.
The ticks are at 60 points.
"Good" upsets are in the top-left quadrant, "bad" upsets are in the bottom-right quadrant.

Adelaide ESS RIC STK COL SYD GCO CAR PAD WBD MEL GWS FRE HAW WCE RIC GEE BRL MEL PAD GWS
Brisbane STK MEL PAD RIC GCO GWS COL WBD HAW SYD NME ESS GWS FRE CAR HAW ADE GEE NME COL
Carlton RIC GCO COL NME WCE WBD ADE ESS MEL GEE SYD FRE COL PAD BRL STK HAW GCO GWS FRE
Collingwood HAW GWS CAR ADE ESS RIC BRL GEE STK WBD FRE MEL CAR GCO ESS WCE NME RIC SYD BRL
Essendon ADE FRE WBD PAD COL MEL HAW CAR GEE GWS RIC BRL WCE NME COL GCO FRE SYD HAW STK
Fremantle PAD ESS GCO GWS WBD WCE RIC STK SYD NME COL ADE CAR BRL MEL PAD ESS HAW WCE CAR
Geelong MEL HAW WCE STK PAD SYD GWS COL ESS CAR GCO NME RIC WBD SYD ADE MEL BRL RIC HAW
Gold Coast NME CAR FRE WCE BRL ADE WBD MEL PAD GEE GWS STK HAW COL NME ESS SYD CAR MEL RIC
GWS Giants WBD COL SYD FRE STK BRL GEE WCE NME ESS ADE GCO BRL HAW WCE RIC PAD STK CAR ADE
Hawthorn COL GEE RIC MEL NME STK ESS SYD BRL WCE PAD ADE GCO GWS WBD BRL CAR FRE ESS GEE
Melbourne GEE BRL NME HAW RIC ESS STK GCO CAR ADE WBD COL PAD STK FRE WBD GEE ADE GCO SYD
North Melb GCO STK MEL CAR HAW PAD SYD RIC GWS FRE BRL GEE WBD ESS GCO SYD COL WCE BRL WBD
Port Adelaide FRE SYD BRL ESS GEE NME WCE ADE GCO HAW RIC WBD MEL CAR STK FRE GWS WBD ADE WCE
Richmond CAR ADE HAW BRL MEL COL FRE NME WCE STK ESS PAD GEE SYD ADE GWS STK COL GEE GCO
St Kilda BRL NME ADE GEE GWS HAW MEL FRE COL RIC WCE SYD GCO MEL PAD CAR RIC GWS WBD ESS
Sydney WCE PAD GWS WBD ADE GEE NME HAW FRE BRL CAR STK WCE RIC GEE NME GCO ESS COL MEL
W Bulldogs GWS WCE ESS SYD FRE CAR GCO BRL ADE COL MEL PAD NME GEE HAW MEL WCE PAD STK NME
West Coast SYD WBD GEE GCO CAR FRE PAD GWS RIC HAW STK SYD ESS ADE GWS COL WBD NME FRE PAD