GRAFT Ratings

A-League 2019-20

Week 17
Fri 31 Jan 2020 | 07:30pm
Jubilee Oval
Sydney1 92%1748+3
Brisbane0 8%1418-3
Sat 01 Feb 2020 | 05:15pm
Newcastle ISC
Newcastle0 70%1422-8
Western United0 30%1376+8
Sat 01 Feb 2020 | 07:30pm
Hindmarsh Stadium
Adelaide3 65%1535+21
Melbourne City1 35%1530-21
Sat 01 Feb 2020 | 09:45pm
Perth Oval
Perth2 85%1650-14
Melbourne Victory2 15%1445+14
Sun 02 Feb 2020 | 04:00pm
Central Coast Stadium
Central Coast 37%1273
Western Sydney 63%1366
Week 18
Fri 07 Feb 2020 | 07:30pm
Swan Street Stadium
Melbourne City 57%1509
Melbourne Victory 43%1459
Fri 07 Feb 2020 | 09:45pm
Perth Oval
Perth 76%1636
Wellington 24%1533
Sat 08 Feb 2020 | 05:15pm
Jubilee Oval
Sydney 90%1751
Western Sydney 10%1366
Sat 08 Feb 2020 | 07:30pm
Lang Park
Brisbane 44%1415
Adelaide 56%1556
Sun 09 Feb 2020 | 04:00pm
Newcastle ISC
Newcastle 69%1414
Central Coast 31%1273
League Table
plwdlfagdptsformnext 5
1 Sydney1513113413+2140WWWWW
2 Melbourne City168353025+527WDWDL
3 Perth157532714+1326WWWDD
4 Wellington157352218+424WWWLW
5 Adelaide158072725+224LLWWW
6 Western United166372322+121LLWLD
7 Brisbane155461620-419WDWWL
8 Melbourne Victory164481924-516WLLLD
9 Western Sydney144281421-714DWLLL
10 Central Coast144191325-1213LLWLL
11 Newcastle152491331-1810LLLLD
GRAFT Elo Rankings
elolastpos
SYD1751+3
PER1636-14
ADL1556+21
WEL1533+10
MCI1509-21
MVC1459+14
BRI1415-3+1
NEW1414-8-1
WUN1384+8
WSW1366-11
CCM1273-20
CCM 1273 WSW 1366 WUN 1384 NEW 1414 BRI 1415 MVC 1459 MCI 1509 WEL 1533 ADL 1556 PER 1636 SYD 1751 FirstFinals Sydney 62.498.6100.0 Perth 45.71.199.2 Melbourne City 41.50.195.7 Adelaide 41.10.192.8 Wellington 40.20.192.5 Brisbane 32.60.042.9 Western United 31.90.039.5 Melbourne Victory 29.10.019.0 Western Sydney 26.90.011.5 Newcastle 24.00.03.7 Central Coast 23.60.03.3

I am using a Elo system similar to the one used by World Football Elo Ratings. The league baseline is 1500, there is a uniform HGA of 100 (except for state derbies) and a K-factor of 40. Seed ratings were generated using historical results from the inception of the A-League. As a new club, Western United has been given a notional seed rating of 1300.

Projections are based on a flat reading of Elo probabilities with a uniform draw probability of 25%. Simulated results are baked into Elo ratings. Some design ideas for the chart taken from Football Club Elo Ratings