AFL | GRAFT Ratings

Welcome back to GRAFT Ratings for 2025.

Using "Round 25" as an ugly fix for the rescheduled Gold Coast v Essendon game.

Sporadic communication: mastodon.social/@graftratings + bluesky.

Full Fixture | CSV: Tips - Rankings - Projections.

Tips correct: 30 / 44 (68.2%)

Correct by round: 1 5 5 6 7 6
GRAFT Margin of Error: 29.4
Mean score: 88.4 - Score 100+: 27 (31%)
Mean margin: 35.7 - Goal or less: 5 - Ten goals or more: 11 - Wins with less scoring shots: 2
Flips: 3 - post-match ratings flip GRAFT's pre-game prediction

Club Profiles

Club Ratings

		rating	net	attack	defence	swing		xwins	att/def
1	GEE	102.2	+18.3	+14.2	+4.1	+3.0	▲2	14.7	+10.1
2	GWS	101.1	+17.2	+9.4	+7.8	+1.7		15.0	+1.5
3	SYD	98.7	+14.8	+8.6	+6.2	-3.9	▼2	13.2	+2.4
4	BRL	98.7	+14.8	+9.3	+5.5	+1.8	▲2	15.2	+3.8
5	COL	98.3	+14.3	+6.0	+8.4	+3.9	▲2	15.1	-2.4
6	HAW	95.3	+11.4	+5.2	+6.2	-3.1	▼2	14.6	-0.9
7	ADE	94.9	+11.0	+12.1	-1.1	-3.0	▼2	13.7	+13.2
8	GCO	94.7	+10.8	+9.7	+1.1	+1.5	▲1	14.5	+8.7
9	WBD	92.2	+8.2	+8.0	+0.3	-1.8	▼1	12.2	+7.7
10	FRE	88.8	+4.9	-1.0	+5.9	+2.1	▲1	12.4	-7.0
11	PAD	88.3	+4.4	+4.5	-0.0	+3.1	▲1	11.0	+4.5
12	STK	86.5	+2.6	-0.3	+2.9	-1.7	▼2	12.6	-3.3
13	CAR	86.2	+2.3	-2.1	+4.3	+3.1		10.2	-6.4
14	ESS	77.5	-6.4	-0.2	-6.3	+3.6		10.2	+6.1
15	MEL	67.6	-16.4	-15.2	-1.1	-3.6		6.7	-14.1
16	NME	54.9	-29.0	-4.6	-24.4	-1.5		6.2	+19.9
17	RIC	44.3	-39.6	-16.2	-23.4	-2.1		5.4	+7.2
18	WCE	40.2	-43.7	-18.7	-25.0	-3.1		4.1	+6.3

Ladder

		p	w	d	l	pts	pf	pa	%	am
1	BRL	5	5	-	-	20	486	405	120.0	+16.2
2	GCO	4	4	-	-	16	488	290	168.3	+49.5
3	GWS	5	4	-	1	16	487	335	145.4	+30.4
4	COL	5	4	-	1	16	436	343	127.1	+18.6
5	HAW	5	4	-	1	16	454	406	111.8	+9.6
6	GEE	5	3	-	2	12	503	383	131.3	+24.0
7	ADE	5	3	-	2	12	600	460	130.4	+28.0
8	FRE	5	3	-	2	12	445	411	108.3	+6.8
9	STK	5	3	-	2	12	476	461	103.3	+3.0
10	SYD	5	2	-	3	8	421	408	103.2	+2.6
11	PAD	5	2	-	3	8	438	456	96.1	-3.6
12	WBD	5	2	-	3	8	444	463	95.9	-3.8
13	ESS	4	2	-	2	8	353	389	90.7	-9.0
14	CAR	5	1	-	4	4	371	358	103.6	+2.6
15	NME	5	1	-	4	4	441	551	80.0	-22.0
16	RIC	5	1	-	4	4	340	570	59.6	-46.0
17	MEL	5	-	-	5	0	305	503	60.6	-39.6
18	WCE	5	-	-	5	0	293	589	49.7	-59.2

Projections

		wins	%	first	top 2	top 4	p 5-8	top 8	spoon
1	COL	15.2	117.7	17.4	32.3	57.3	31.1	88.4	-
2	GWS	15.0	120.3	16.7	31.9	56.9	31.1	88.0	-
3	BRL	15.3	110.6	17.5	31.3	54.3	31.8	86.1	-
4	GEE	14.7	121.4	13.8	27.5	51.9	33.9	85.8	-
5	HAW	14.7	111.8	10.7	22.3	44.5	36.5	81.0	-
6	GCO	14.5	116.0	11.8	23.3	44.9	35.6	80.5	-
7	ADE	13.7	115.9	5.4	12.7	30.8	39.5	70.3	-
8	SYD	13.2	112.4	2.9	7.8	21.7	38.7	60.4	0.0
9	STK	12.6	103.9	1.4	3.8	12.3	31.4	43.7	-
10	FRE	12.4	104.3	1.2	3.2	10.7	29.8	40.5	-
11	WBD	12.2	105.5	0.8	2.7	9.2	28.8	38.0	0.0
12	PAD	11.0	99.7	0.2	0.6	2.8	14.5	17.4	0.0
13	CAR	10.2	102.0	0.1	0.3	1.5	9.5	11.0	0.1
14	ESS	10.2	92.8	0.1	0.2	1.1	7.7	8.8	0.1
15	MEL	6.6	79.9	-	-	-	0.1	0.1	6.6
16	NME	6.1	78.8	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	9.5
17	RIC	5.3	70.0	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	23.4
18	WCE	4.0	65.7	-	-	-	-	-	60.3
Run with last game played: R5 PAD v HAW 13 Apr

AFL Round 5 - Gather Round : 10-13 April

Adelaide Oval				Thu 10 Apr · 7:40pm
	rt	par	win	result			swing	new rt
Adelaide	+14.0	97.4	58%	15	10	100	-3.0	+11.0
Geelong	+15.4	86.8	41%	18	11	119	+3.0	+18.3
Tip: Adelaide by 11				Geelong by 19 ✘

Adelaide Oval				Fri 11 Apr · 7:40pm
	rt	par	win	result			swing	new rt
Collingwood	+10.4	77.3	42%	16	13	109	+3.9	+14.3
Sydney Swans	+18.8	85.7	56%	12	6	78	-3.9	+14.8
Tip: Sydney Swans by 8				Collingwood by 31 ✘

Barossa Park, Lyndoch (SA)				Sat 12 Apr · 12:35pm
	rt	par	win	result			swing	new rt
North Melbourne	-27.5	75.6	23%	13	11	89	-1.5	-29.0
Gold Coast	+9.3	112.3	77%	21	15	141	+1.5	+10.8
Tip: Gold Coast by 37				Gold Coast by 52 ✔

Adelaide Oval				Sat 12 Apr · 11:20pm
	rt	par	win	result			swing	new rt
Carlton	-0.9	103.3	79%	17	19	121	+3.1	+2.3
West Coast	-40.5	63.6	20%	6	14	50	-3.1	-43.7
Tip: Carlton by 40				Carlton by 71 ✔

Norwood Oval, Adelaide				Sat 12 Apr · 4:15pm
	rt	par	win	result			swing	new rt
Western Bulldogs	+10.1	83.7	47%	14	13	97	-1.8	+8.2
Brisbane Lions	+12.9	86.6	52%	18	10	118	+1.8	+14.8
Tip: Brisbane Lions by 3				Brisbane Lions by 21 ✔

Adelaide Oval				Sat 12 Apr · 7:35pm
	rt	par	win	result			swing	new rt
Melbourne	-12.7	79.4	47%	8	9	57	-3.6	-16.4
Essendon	-10.1	82.1	52%	15	6	96	+3.6	-6.4
Tip: Essendon by 3				Essendon by 39 ✔

Barossa Park, Lyndoch (SA)				Sun 13 Apr · 11:35pm
	rt	par	win	result			swing	new rt
Richmond	-37.5	65.5	20%	7	5	47	-2.1	-39.6
Fremantle	+2.9	105.9	80%	16	12	108	+2.1	+4.9
Tip: Fremantle by 40				Fremantle by 61 ✔

Norwood Oval, Adelaide				Sun 13 Apr · 1:20pm
	rt	par	win	result			swing	new rt
St Kilda	+4.3	74.2	40%	12	10	82	-1.7	+2.6
GWS Giants	+15.5	85.4	59%	16	14	110	+1.7	+17.2
Tip: GWS Giants by 11				GWS Giants by 28 ✔

Adelaide Oval				Sun 13 Apr · 7:20pm
	rt	par	win	result			swing	new rt
Port Adelaide	+1.3	80.0	48%	18	13	121	+3.1	+4.4
Hawthorn	+14.5	81.2	50%	14	7	91	-3.1	+11.4
Tip: Hawthorn by 1				Port Adelaide by 30 ✘

AFL Round 6 - Easter Weekend : 17-21 April

The Gabba, Brisbane				Thu 17 Apr · 7:30pm
	rt	par	win	result	swing	new rt
Brisbane Lions	+14.8	90.8	60%
Collingwood	+14.3	78.4	39%
Tip: Brisbane Lions by 12

Docklands Stadium, Melbourne				Fri 18 Apr · 3:20pm
	rt	par	win	result	swing	new rt
North Melbourne	-29.0	75.0	26%
Carlton	+2.3	106.3	73%
Tip: Carlton by 31

Perth Stadium				Fri 18 Apr · 6:10pm
	rt	par	win	result	swing	new rt
West Coast	-43.7	77.5	30%
Essendon	-6.4	102.7	69%
Tip: Essendon by 25

Melbourne Cricket Ground				Sat 19 Apr · 1:20pm
	rt	par	win	result	swing	new rt
Melbourne	-16.4	68.7	41%
Fremantle	+4.9	78.0	58%
Tip: Fremantle by 9

Adelaide Oval				Sat 19 Apr · 4:15pm
	rt	par	win	result	swing	new rt
Adelaide	+11.0	94.2	54%
GWS Giants	+17.2	88.3	45%
Tip: Adelaide by 6

Docklands Stadium, Melbourne				Sat 19 Apr · 7:35pm
	rt	par	win	result	swing	new rt
Richmond	-39.6	72.7	21%
Gold Coast	+10.8	111.0	78%
Tip: Gold Coast by 38

Sydney Cricket Ground				Sun 20 Apr · 3:20pm
	rt	par	win	result	swing	new rt
Sydney Swans	+14.8	98.6	67%
Port Adelaide	+4.4	76.1	32%
Tip: Sydney Swans by 22

Docklands Stadium, Melbourne				Sun 20 Apr · 7:20pm
	rt	par	win	result	swing	new rt
Western Bulldogs	+8.2	88.9	54%
St Kilda	+2.6	83.3	45%
Tip: Western Bulldogs by 6

Melbourne Cricket Ground				Mon 21 Apr · 3:20pm
	rt	par	win	result	swing	new rt
Geelong	+18.3	92.0	55%
Hawthorn	+11.4	85.0	44%
Tip: Geelong by 7