AFL | GRAFT Ratings

Welcome back to GRAFT Ratings for 2025.

Using "Round 25" as an ugly fix for the rescheduled Gold Coast v Essendon game.

Sporadic communication: mastodon.social/@graftratings + bluesky.

Full Fixture | CSV: Tips - Rankings - Projections.

Tips correct: 11 / 19 (57.9%)

Correct by round: 1 5 5
GRAFT Margin of Error: 39.5
Mean score: 90.3 - Score 100+: 11 (29%)
Mean margin: 36.8 - Goal or less: 4 - Ten goals or more: 6 - Wins with less scoring shots: 2
Flips: 1 - post-match ratings flip GRAFT's pre-game prediction

Club Profiles

Club Ratings

		rating	net	attack	defence	swing		xwins	off tend
1	SYD	98.8	+14.9	+8.4	+6.6	+0.2	▲2	13.5	+1.8
2	ADE	98.7	+14.8	+12.5	+2.3	+5.8	▲5	15.0	+10.2
3	BRL	98.6	+14.7	+7.6	+7.0	-5.9	▼2	14.3	+0.6
4	HAW	98.5	+14.6	+5.5	+9.1	+0.6		15.1	-3.7
5	GWS	97.7	+13.8	+6.5	+7.3	+0.7		14.7	-0.7
6	GEE	97.5	+13.6	+14.6	-1.0	-3.1	▼4	13.6	+15.7
7	WBD	95.8	+11.9	+7.4	+4.5	-1.0	▼1	13.4	+3.0
8	COL	93.6	+9.7	+5.4	+4.3	+1.0		13.4	+1.1
9	PAD	90.3	+6.4	+5.5	+0.9	+2.5	▲2	12.0	+4.7
10	GCO	87.9	+4.0	+3.1	+0.9	+6.2		12.3	+2.2
11	FRE	85.7	+1.8	-3.1	+4.9	-0.2	▲1	11.1	-7.9
12	CAR	83.3	-0.6	-0.1	-0.5	-0.6	▲1	10.5	+0.4
13	STK	79.7	-4.3	-6.8	+2.5	+3.1	▲2	10.9	-9.3
14	MEL	78.6	-5.3	-8.6	+3.3	-9.9	▼5	9.6	-11.9
15	ESS	72.0	-11.9	+0.2	-12.1	-5.8	▼1	8.5	+12.2
16	NME	58.7	-25.2	-3.7	-21.6	+9.9	▲1	7.2	+17.9
17	RIC	50.3	-33.6	-15.7	-17.8	-2.5	▼1	6.7	+2.1
18	WCE	44.7	-39.2	-17.9	-21.3	+5.9		4.8	+3.4

Ladder

		p	w	d	l	pts	pf	pa	%	am
1	HAW	3	3	-	-	12	287	221	129.9	+22.0
2	ADE	2	2	-	-	8	296	172	172.1	+62.0
3	GWS	2	2	-	-	8	181	126	143.7	+27.5
4	COL	3	2	-	1	8	264	219	120.5	+15.0
5	BRL	2	2	-	-	8	180	157	114.6	+11.5
6	GCO	1	1	-	-	4	136	49	277.6	+87.0
7	GEE	2	1	-	1	4	238	167	142.5	+35.5
8	NME	2	1	-	1	4	222	179	124.0	+21.5
9	WBD	2	1	-	1	4	183	173	105.8	+5.0
10	SYD	3	1	-	2	4	226	247	91.5	-7.0
11	PAD	2	1	-	1	4	185	204	90.7	-9.5
12	STK	2	1	-	1	4	170	226	75.2	-28.0
13	RIC	2	1	-	1	4	150	209	71.8	-29.5
14	CAR	2	-	-	2	0	129	162	79.6	-16.5
15	MEL	2	-	-	2	0	140	202	69.3	-31.0
16	ESS	2	-	-	2	0	185	272	68.0	-43.5
17	FRE	2	-	-	2	0	134	215	62.3	-40.5
18	WCE	2	-	-	2	0	124	230	53.9	-53.0

Projections

		wins	%	first	top 2	top 4	p 5-8	top 8	spoon
1	ADE	15.1	120.2	21.9	38.5	63.0	27.4	90.4	-
2	HAW	15.1	115.4	20.6	36.8	61.3	28.1	89.4	-
3	GWS	14.7	115.8	15.8	30.5	54.9	31.3	86.2	-
4	BRL	14.3	110.4	11.7	23.4	45.0	34.6	79.6	-
5	GEE	13.7	114.5	7.6	16.7	36.6	37.0	73.6	0.0
6	SYD	13.6	112.3	6.0	14.1	33.6	39.0	72.5	0.0
7	COL	13.5	110.3	5.6	12.9	31.1	38.4	69.5	0.0
8	WBD	13.4	110.7	5.8	13.3	31.0	37.8	68.8	0.0
9	GCO	12.3	106.4	2.4	5.8	16.4	31.9	48.3	0.0
10	PAD	12.0	102.1	1.4	4.0	12.0	29.6	41.6	0.0
11	FRE	11.2	99.4	0.5	1.6	5.8	21.0	26.8	0.2
12	STK	10.9	94.6	0.4	1.1	4.4	17.5	21.9	0.3
13	CAR	10.5	98.3	0.2	0.8	3.4	14.6	17.9	0.5
14	MEL	9.6	93.0	0.1	0.3	1.3	7.8	9.2	1.3
15	ESS	8.5	87.7	0.0	0.1	0.3	3.1	3.4	3.8
16	NME	7.2	83.0	-	-	0.0	0.6	0.6	10.6
17	RIC	6.7	76.1	-	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	18.8
18	WCE	4.7	69.6	-	-	0.0	-	0.0	64.4
Run with last game played: R2 FRE v SYD 23 Mar

AFL Round 2 : 20-23 March

Melbourne Cricket Ground				Thu 20 Mar · 7:30pm
	rt	par	win	result			swing	new rt
Carlton	-0.0	78.4	38%	8	12	60	-0.6	-0.6
Hawthorn	+14.0	92.4	61%	12	8	80	+0.6	+14.6
Tip: Hawthorn by 14				Hawthorn by 20 ✔

Melbourne Cricket Ground				Fri 21 Mar · 7:40pm
	rt	par	win	result			swing	new rt
Western Bulldogs	+12.9	91.3	53%	10	10	70	-1.0	+11.9
Collingwood	+8.7	87.1	46%	10	16	76	+1.0	+9.7
Tip: Western Bulldogs by 4				Collingwood by 6 ✘

Melbourne Cricket Ground				Sat 22 Mar · 1:20pm
	rt	par	win	result			swing	new rt
Essendon	-6.1	84.7	47%	15	10	100	-5.8	-11.9
Adelaide	+9.0	87.9	52%	25	11	161	+5.8	+14.8
Tip: Adelaide by 3				Adelaide by 61 ✔

Adelaide Oval				Sat 22 Mar · 4:15pm
	rt	par	win	result			swing	new rt
Port Adelaide	+3.9	106.6	83%	21	14	140	+2.5	+6.4
Richmond	-31.1	59.6	16%	9	14	68	-2.5	-33.6
Tip: Port Adelaide by 47				Port Adelaide by 72 ✔

Docklands Stadium, Melbourne				Sat 22 Mar · 7:35pm
	rt	par	win	result			swing	new rt
St Kilda	-7.4	73.2	30%	15	8	98	+3.1	-4.3
Geelong	+16.7	97.3	69%	13	13	91	-3.1	+13.6
Tip: Geelong by 24				St Kilda by 7 ✘

The Gabba, Brisbane				Sun 23 Mar · 1:10pm
	rt	par	win	result			swing	new rt
Brisbane Lions	+20.5	125.1	94%	14	10	94	-5.9	+14.7
West Coast	-45.1	47.5	5%	11	9	75	+5.9	-39.2
Tip: Brisbane Lions by 78				Brisbane Lions by 19 ✔

Docklands Stadium, Melbourne				Sun 23 Mar · 3:20pm
	rt	par	win	result			swing	new rt
North Melbourne	-35.1	64.9	20%	19	11	125	+9.9	-25.2
Melbourne	+4.6	104.6	79%	9	12	66	-9.9	-5.3
Tip: Melbourne by 40				North Melbourne by 59 ✘

Perth Stadium				Sun 23 Mar · 6:10pm
	rt	par	win	result			swing	new rt
Fremantle	+2.0	84.1	49%	9	11	65	-0.2	+1.8
Sydney Swans	+14.7	84.8	50%	9	14	68	+0.2	+14.9
Tip: Sydney Swans by 1				Sydney Swans by 3 ✔

AFL Round 3 : 27-30 March

Docklands Stadium, Melbourne				Thu 27 Mar · 7:30pm
	rt	par	win	result	swing	new rt
Essendon	-11.9	89.2	44%
Port Adelaide	+6.4	95.5	55%
Tip: Port Adelaide by 6

Docklands Stadium, Melbourne				Fri 28 Mar · 7:40pm
	rt	par	win	result	swing	new rt
Carlton	-0.6	79.4	39%
Western Bulldogs	+11.9	91.9	60%
Tip: Western Bulldogs by 13

Melbourne Cricket Ground				Sat 29 Mar · 1:20pm
	rt	par	win	result	swing	new rt
Melbourne	-5.3	80.4	52%
Gold Coast	+4.0	77.7	47%
Tip: Melbourne by 3

Docklands Stadium, Melbourne				Sat 29 Mar · 4:15pm
	rt	par	win	result	swing	new rt
St Kilda	-4.3	95.0	73%
Richmond	-33.6	65.6	26%
Tip: St Kilda by 29

York Park, Launceston				Sat 29 Mar · 7:35pm
	rt	par	win	result	swing	new rt
Hawthorn	+14.6	88.1	60%
GWS Giants	+13.8	75.3	39%
Tip: Hawthorn by 13

The Gabba, Brisbane				Sat 29 Mar · 7:35pm
	rt	par	win	result	swing	new rt
Brisbane Lions	+14.7	98.6	60%
Geelong	+13.6	85.5	39%
Tip: Brisbane Lions by 13

Adelaide Oval				Sun 30 Mar · 3:20pm
	rt	par	win	result	swing	new rt
Adelaide	+14.8	124.0	85%
North Melbourne	-25.2	72.0	15%
Tip: Adelaide by 52

Perth Stadium				Sun 30 Mar · 6:10pm
	rt	par	win	result	swing	new rt
West Coast	-39.2	61.2	19%
Fremantle	+1.8	102.2	80%
Tip: Fremantle by 41