AFL | GRAFT Ratings

Welcome back to GRAFT Ratings for 2024.

Data files: Tips CSV | Ranking CSV | Projections CSV

Sporadic communication: mastodon.social/@graftratings

Tips correct: 35 / 54 (64.8%)

Correct by round: 2 6 6 4 9 4 4
GRAFT Margin of Error: 25.3
Mean score: 83.9 - Score 100+: 29 (27%)
Mean margin: 29.6 - Goal or less: 11 - Ten goals or more: 6 - Wins with less scoring shots: 7
Flips: 2 - post-match ratings flip GRAFT's pre-game prediction

Club Profiles

Club Ratings

		rating	net	attack	defence	swing		xwins	off tend
1	GEE	103.5	+20.1	+9.5	+10.5	+3.9	▲2	17.4	-1.0
2	MEL	100.8	+17.4	+3.4	+14.0	-4.3	▼1	14.9	-10.6
3	COL	98.3	+14.9	+8.5	+6.4	+3.3	▲3	13.4	+2.1
4	SYD	97.6	+14.2	+9.5	+4.7	+2.6	▲1	14.9	+4.8
5	BRL	96.6	+13.2	+2.3	+10.9	-3.9	▼3	12.1	-8.5
6	PAD	94.8	+11.4	+11.5	-0.1	-3.3	▼2	13.7	+11.6
7	CAR	92.4	+9.0	+6.3	+2.7	+0.7		14.2	+3.6
8	WBD	91.5	+8.1	+3.8	+4.3	+6.6	▲4	12.3	-0.5
9	GWS	90.6	+7.2	+10.1	-2.9	-0.7	▼1	13.8	+13.0
10	ADE	86.7	+3.3	+0.9	+2.4	-2.3		10.0	-1.5
11	STK	84.0	+0.5	-7.4	+7.9	-6.6	▼2	11.0	-15.2
12	ESS	83.4	-0.0	+0.8	-0.9	+2.3	▲1	12.9	+1.7
13	FRE	78.0	-5.4	-10.8	+5.4	-8.3	▼2	10.4	-16.2
14	GCO	77.3	-6.1	-3.9	-2.2	-2.6		10.8	-1.7
15	RIC	70.6	-12.8	-6.7	-6.1	-7.2		7.6	-0.6
16	HAW	64.7	-18.8	-10.0	-8.7	+2.8		7.1	-1.3
17	WCE	48.7	-34.8	-13.3	-21.5	+8.3	▲1	6.5	+8.2
18	NME	42.3	-41.2	-12.6	-28.6	-2.8	▼1	3.8	+15.9

Ladder

		p	w	d	l	pts	pf	pa	%	am
1	GEE	6	6	-	-	24	575	407	141.3	+28.0
2	SYD	6	5	-	1	20	610	451	135.3	+26.5
3	GWS	6	5	-	1	20	638	492	129.7	+24.3
4	CAR	6	5	-	1	20	597	508	117.5	+14.8
5	PAD	6	4	-	2	16	589	486	121.2	+17.2
6	MEL	6	4	-	2	16	500	422	118.5	+13.0
7	ESS	6	4	-	2	16	495	534	92.7	-6.5
8	WBD	6	3	-	3	12	567	461	123.0	+17.7
9	FRE	6	3	-	3	12	458	424	108.0	+5.7
10	COL	6	3	-	3	12	522	535	97.6	-2.2
11	GCO	6	3	-	3	12	481	512	93.9	-5.2
12	BRL	6	2	-	4	8	458	436	105.0	+3.7
13	STK	6	2	-	4	8	439	490	89.6	-8.5
14	WCE	6	2	-	4	8	435	576	75.5	-23.5
15	ADE	6	1	-	5	4	403	479	84.1	-12.7
16	RIC	6	1	-	5	4	445	560	79.5	-19.2
17	HAW	6	1	-	5	4	432	560	77.1	-21.3
18	NME	6	-	-	6	0	413	724	57.0	-51.8

Projections

		wins	%	first	top 2	top 4	p 5-8	top 8	spoon
1	GEE	17.4	127.1	60.6	78.9	93.2	6.2	99.4	-
2	MEL	15.0	119.3	11.3	31.3	61.7	29.5	91.2	-
3	SYD	15.0	116.5	10.7	29.2	58.6	31.3	89.9	-
4	CAR	14.2	108.5	5.3	15.8	40.4	39.8	80.2	-
5	PAD	13.7	111.6	3.3	11.5	33.2	41.8	75.0	-
6	GWS	13.8	108.9	3.5	11.9	33.4	41.0	74.4	-
7	COL	13.4	109.6	2.4	8.9	27.7	42.2	69.9	0.0
8	ESS	12.9	100.4	1.2	4.4	16.4	38.2	54.6	-
9	WBD	12.3	110.4	1.0	3.9	14.5	36.5	51.0	-
10	BRL	12.2	109.9	0.5	2.8	12.2	35.8	48.0	-
11	STK	11.0	100.3	0.1	0.5	3.3	19.4	22.7	0.0
12	GCO	10.8	95.6	0.1	0.4	2.4	15.3	17.7	0.1
13	FRE	10.4	96.6	0.1	0.3	1.9	12.2	14.2	0.1
14	ADE	10.0	98.6	0.0	0.1	1.1	9.7	10.8	0.2
15	RIC	7.6	85.8	-	-	0.0	0.7	0.7	3.3
16	HAW	7.0	82.9	-	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.3	5.8
17	WCE	6.4	74.9	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	12.0
18	NME	3.8	67.7	-	-	-	-	-	78.5
Run with last game played: R6 NME v HAW 21 Apr

AFL Round 6 : 18-21 April

Docklands Stadium, Melbourne				Thu 18 Apr · 7:30pm
	rt	par	win	result			swing	new rt
St Kilda	+7.1	73.7	54%	9	10	64	-6.6	+0.5
Western Bulldogs	+1.5	68.2	44%	19	10	124	+6.6	+8.1
Tip: St Kilda by 6				Western Bulldogs by 60 ✘

Adelaide Oval				Fri 19 Apr · 7:40pm
	rt	par	win	result			swing	new rt
Adelaide	+5.6	95.2	66%	11	9	75	-2.3	+3.3
Essendon	-2.3	75.3	33%	10	18	78	+2.3	-0.0
Tip: Adelaide by 20				Essendon by 3 ✘

Melbourne Cricket Ground				Sat 20 Apr · 1:45pm
	rt	par	win	result			swing	new rt
Collingwood	+11.5	91.8	57%	17	21	123	+3.3	+14.9
Port Adelaide	+14.7	82.9	42%	12	9	81	-3.3	+11.4
Tip: Collingwood by 9				Collingwood by 42 ✔

Docklands Stadium, Melbourne				Sat 20 Apr · 4:35pm
	rt	par	win	result			swing	new rt
Carlton	+8.3	94.0	60%	17	15	117	+0.7	+9.0
GWS Giants	+7.9	81.5	39%	15	8	98	-0.7	+7.2
Tip: Carlton by 12				Carlton by 19 ✔

The Gabba, Brisbane				Sat 20 Apr · 7:30pm
	rt	par	win	result			swing	new rt
Brisbane Lions	+17.1	92.3	60%	4	13	37	-3.9	+13.2
Geelong	+16.2	79.4	39%	9	9	63	+3.9	+20.1
Tip: Brisbane Lions by 13				Geelong by 26 ✘

Perth Stadium				Sat 20 Apr · 8:10pm
	rt	par	win	result			swing	new rt
West Coast	-43.0	54.7	16%	16	9	105	+8.3	-34.8
Fremantle	+2.9	100.7	84%	10	8	68	-8.3	-5.4
Tip: Fremantle by 46				West Coast by 37 ✘

Sydney Cricket Ground				Sun 21 Apr · 1:00pm
	rt	par	win	result			swing	new rt
Sydney Swans	+11.6	98.9	71%	17	8	110	+2.6	+14.2
Gold Coast	-3.5	71.8	28%	8	9	57	-2.6	-6.1
Tip: Sydney Swans by 27				Sydney Swans by 53 ✔

Docklands Stadium, Melbourne				Sun 21 Apr · 4:00pm
	rt	par	win	result			swing	new rt
North Melbourne	-38.4	82.4	36%	10	8	68	-2.8	-41.2
Hawthorn	-21.6	99.2	63%	17	11	113	+2.8	-18.8
Tip: Hawthorn by 17				Hawthorn by 45 ✔

AFL Round 7 - Anzac Round : 24-28 April

Melbourne Cricket Ground				Wed 24 Apr · 7:25pm
	rt	par	win	result	swing	new rt
Richmond	-12.8	62.7	25%
Melbourne	+17.4	92.9	74%
Tip: Melbourne by 30

Melbourne Cricket Ground				Thu 25 Apr · 3:20pm
	rt	par	win	result	swing	new rt
Essendon	-0.0	77.9	37%
Collingwood	+14.9	92.8	62%
Tip: Collingwood by 15

Manuka Oval, Canberra				Thu 25 Apr · 7:30pm
	rt	par	win	result	swing	new rt
GWS Giants	+7.2	88.7	54%
Brisbane Lions	+13.2	82.7	44%
Tip: GWS Giants by 6

Adelaide Oval				Fri 26 Apr · 7:40pm
	rt	par	win	result	swing	new rt
Port Adelaide	+11.4	93.0	68%
St Kilda	+0.5	70.2	31%
Tip: Port Adelaide by 23

Bellerive Oval, Hobart				Sat 27 Apr · 1:45pm
	rt	par	win	result	swing	new rt
North Melbourne	-41.2	74.4	25%
Adelaide	+3.3	106.9	74%
Tip: Adelaide by 32

Melbourne Cricket Ground				Sat 27 Apr · 4:35pm
	rt	par	win	result	swing	new rt
Geelong	+20.1	90.2	59%
Carlton	+9.0	79.2	40%
Tip: Geelong by 11

Perth Stadium				Sat 27 Apr · 7:30pm
	rt	par	win	result	swing	new rt
Fremantle	-5.4	74.3	48%
Western Bulldogs	+8.1	75.8	51%
Tip: Western Bulldogs by 1

Carrara Stadium, Gold Coast				Sun 28 Apr · 1:00pm
	rt	par	win	result	swing	new rt
Gold Coast	-6.1	107.0	80%
West Coast	-34.8	66.3	20%
Tip: Gold Coast by 41

Melbourne Cricket Ground				Sun 28 Apr · 4:00pm
	rt	par	win	result	swing	new rt
Hawthorn	-18.8	74.7	33%
Sydney Swans	+14.2	95.6	66%
Tip: Sydney Swans by 21