AFL | GRAFT Ratings

Welcome back to GRAFT Ratings for 2019 - note that things are still in flux with new and old features to come.

Seed ratings are based on overall 2018 Home & Away performances and do not reflect list changes, leg breakages, etc. Also we're about as 🤔 as Geelong being ranked second as you are, but it'll probably get fixed in the mix.

For aggregators, graft_tips.csv is back, with the format unchanged from 2018.

ADE

AFL Round 1 : 21-24 March
time / venue	w%	home	score		away	w%	GRAFT	Gamma line	result
Thu 19:20 MCG	6	CAR	64	97	RIC	93	-70.5	RIC +53	RIC +33
Fri 19:50 MCG	42	COL	65	72	GEE	56	-8.2	GEE +6	GEE +7
Sat 13:45 MCG	71	MEL	61	87	PAD	28	+27.1	MEL +20	PAD +26
Sat 16:35 Adelaide Oval	46	ADE	55	87	HAW	52	-3.6	HAW +3	HAW +32
Sat 19:25 Docklands	37	WBD	82	65	SYD	62	-14.7	SYD +11	WBD +17
Sat 20:20 The Gabba	38	BRL	102	58	WCE	61	-13.9	WCE +10	BRL +44
Sun 13:10 Docklands	73	STK			GCO	26	+29.0	STK +22
Sun 15:20 Sydney Showground	63	GWS			ESS	36	+15.8	GWS +12
Sun 18:20 Perth Stadium	34	FRE			NME	65	-18.6	NME +14

AFL Round 2 : 28-31 March
time / venue	w%	home	score	away	w%	GRAFT	Gamma line	result
Thu 19:20 MCG	54	RIC		COL	45	+5.2	RIC +4
Fri 19:50 SCG	62	SYD		ADE	37	+14.7	SYD +11
Sat 16:35 Docklands	75	ESS		STK	24	+32.2	ESS +24
Sat 17:10 Adelaide Oval	92	PAD		CAR	7	+64.6	PAD +48
Sat 19:25 Kardinia Park	57	GEE		MEL	42	+8.6	GEE +6
Sat 20:10 Perth Stadium	57	WCE		GWS	42	+8.3	WCE +6
Sun 13:10 Docklands	68	NME		BRL	31	+22.6	NME +17
Sun 15:20 MCG	80	HAW		WBD	19	+38.9	HAW +29
Sun 16:40 Carrara Stadium	47	GCO		FRE	52	-2.8	FRE +2

More match details down the page.

GRAFT Ratings

		rating	net	attack	defence	swing	last week	exp wins
1	Geelong	107.2	+24.2	+8.7	+15.6	-0.1	+1	15.4
2	Hawthorn	105.5	+22.6	+8.4	+14.2	+2.8	+2	15.0
3	Richmond	104.5	+21.5	+11.4	+10.0	-3.7	-2	14.7
4	Collingwood	99.2	+16.2	+8.3	+8.0	+0.1	+1	12.9
5	Melbourne	98.6	+15.6	+14.5	+1.2	-5.3	-2	12.8
6	GWS Giants	95.6	+12.6	+4.2	+8.4		+1	12.9
7	Port Adelaide	94.1	+11.1	-1.7	+12.8	+5.3	+3	13.6
8	West Coast	91.9	+8.9	+4.3	+4.6	-5.8	-2	11.9
9	Essendon	91.9	+8.9	+7.0	+1.9		-1	12.3
10	North Melb	88.2	+5.2	+4.6	+0.6		+1	11.4
11	Sydney	87.0	+4.0	-2.6	+6.6	-3.2	-2	10.8
12	Adelaide	84.3	+1.3	+0.6	+0.7	-2.8		11.0
13	Brisbane	77.6	-5.4	+0.6	-6.0	+5.8		10.7
14	W Bulldogs	66.7	-16.3	-8.7	-7.6	+3.2		8.9
15	St Kilda	59.7	-23.3	-10.1	-13.2			7.6
16	Fremantle	57.5	-25.4	-15.2	-10.2			6.7
17	Gold Coast	42.7	-40.3	-23.9	-16.3			4.8
18	Carlton	41.5	-41.5	-20.9	-20.6	+3.7		4.5

League Ladder

		pl	w	d	l	pf	pa	%	pts
1	BRL	1	1	-	-	102	58	175.9	4
2	HAW	1	1	-	-	87	55	158.2	4
3	RIC	1	1	-	-	97	64	151.6	4
4	PAD	1	1	-	-	87	61	142.6	4
5	WBD	1	1	-	-	82	65	126.2	4
6	GEE	1	1	-	-	72	65	110.8	4
7	COL	1	-	-	1	65	72	90.3	0
8	SYD	1	-	-	1	65	82	79.3	0
9	MEL	1	-	-	1	61	87	70.1	0
10	CAR	1	-	-	1	64	97	66.0	0
11	ADE	1	-	-	1	55	87	63.2	0
12	WCE	1	-	-	1	58	102	56.9	0
13	ESS	0	-	-	-	0	0	-	0
14	FRE	0	-	-	-	0	0	-	0
15	GCO	0	-	-	-	0	0	-	0
16	GWS	0	-	-	-	0	0	-	0
17	NME	0	-	-	-	0	0	-	0
18	STK	0	-	-	-	0	0	-	0

AFL Round 1

Thu 21 Mar, 07:20PM
Melbourne Cricket Ground
Carlton				Richmond
9.10 64				14.13 97
graft		37.7attack -22.3 defence -22.9 net -45.2		108.2attack +13.7 defence +11.5 net +25.2
par		49.1CAR Att -22.3 –RIC Def -11.5 Travel +0.0 Baseline 83.0 Par 49.1		119.6RIC Att +13.7 –CAR Def +22.9 Travel +0.0 Baseline 83.0 Par 119.6		RIC 70.5
Γ line		56.9		109.7		RIC 52.9

	30+	win	draw		win	30+
%	1.0	6.3	0.4		93.3	74.4	%
	4.3	score 100+				63.7
Richmond by 33 ✔
better than expected for Carlton (71%)
		CAR		RIC
score		64		97
rank		63%		32%
new GRAFT		41.5		104.5		CAR +3.7

Fri 22 Mar, 07:50PM
Melbourne Cricket Ground
Collingwood				Geelong
9.11 65				10.12 72
graft		99.1attack +9.6 defence +6.5 net +16.1		107.3attack +10.1 defence +14.2 net +24.4
par		78.4COL Att +9.6 –GEE Def -14.2 Travel +0.0 Baseline 83.0 Par 78.4		86.6GEE Att +10.1 –COL Def -6.5 Travel +0.0 Baseline 83.0 Par 86.6		GEE 8.2
Γ line		78.8		85.0		GEE 6.2

	30+	win	draw		win	30+
%	15.3	42.4	1.1		56.4	24.9	%
	21.0	score 100+				28.6
Geelong by 7 ✔
about what was expected (48%)
		COL		GEE
score		65		72
rank		27%		29%
new GRAFT		99.2		107.2		COL +0.1

Sat 23 Mar, 01:45PM
Melbourne Cricket Ground
Melbourne				Port Adelaide
9. 7 61				12.15 87
graft		103.9attack +18.2 defence +2.8 net +20.9		88.8attack -3.3 defence +9.1 net +5.8		PAD ✈
par		98.1MEL Att +18.2 –PAD Def -9.1 Travel +6.0 Baseline 83.0 Par 98.1		70.9PAD Att -3.3 –MEL Def -2.8 Travel -6.0 Baseline 83.0 Par 70.9		MEL 27.1
Γ line		93.6		73.2		MEL 20.3

	30+	win	draw		win	30+
%	39.3	71.3	1.0		27.7	7.9	%
	40.6	score 100+				15.2
Port Adelaide by 26 ✘
much worse than expected for Melbourne (9%)
		MEL		PAD
score		61		87
rank		8%		71%
new GRAFT		98.6		94.1		MEL -5.3

Sat 23 Mar, 04:35PM
Adelaide Oval
Adelaide				Hawthorn
7.13 55				12.15 87
graft		87.1attack +3.1 defence +1.0 net +4.1		102.7attack +8.1 defence +11.6 net +19.7		HAW ✈
par		80.5ADE Att +3.1 –HAW Def -11.6 Travel +6.0 Baseline 83.0 Par 80.5		84.1HAW Att +8.1 –ADE Def -1.0 Travel -6.0 Baseline 83.0 Par 84.1		HAW 3.6
Γ line		80.4		83.1		HAW 2.7

	30+	win	draw		win	30+
%	17.7	46.3	1.2		52.5	21.9	%
	22.8	score 100+				26.2
Hawthorn by 32 ✔
much worse than expected for Adelaide (19%)
		ADE		HAW
score		55		87
rank		12%		56%
new GRAFT		84.3		105.5		ADE -2.8

Sat 23 Mar, 07:25PM
Docklands, Melbourne
W Bulldogs				Sydney
11.16 82				9.11 65
graft		63.5attack -9.7 defence -9.8 net -19.5		90.2attack -0.5 defence +7.6 net +7.2		SYD ✈
par		71.7WBD Att -9.7 –SYD Def -7.6 Travel +6.0 Baseline 83.0 Par 71.7		86.3SYD Att -0.5 –WBD Def +9.8 Travel -6.0 Baseline 83.0 Par 86.3		SYD 14.7
Γ line		73.8		84.7		SYD 11.0

	30+	win	draw		win	30+
%	11.9	36.9	1.1		62.0	29.1	%
	15.7	score 100+				28.3
W Bulldogs by 17 ✘
better than expected for W Bulldogs (79%)
		WBD		SYD
score		82		65
rank		63%		20%
new GRAFT		66.7		87.0		WBD +3.2

Sat 23 Mar, 08:20PM
The Gabba, Brisbane
Brisbane				West Coast
15.12 102				8.10 58
graft		71.8attack -1.5 defence -9.7 net -11.2		97.7attack +8.0 defence +6.8 net +14.7		WCE ✈
par		80.7BRL Att -1.5 –WCE Def -6.8 Travel +6.0 Baseline 83.0 Par 80.7		94.6WCE Att +8.0 –BRL Def +9.7 Travel -6.0 Baseline 83.0 Par 94.6		WCE 13.9
Γ line		80.6		91.0		WCE 10.4

	30+	win	draw		win	30+
%	13.2	38.0	1.1		60.9	29.4	%
	23.1	score 100+				36.9
Brisbane by 44 ✘
much better than expected for Brisbane (93%)
		BRL		WCE
score		102		58
rank		79%		7%
new GRAFT		77.6		91.9		BRL +5.8

Sun 24 Mar, 01:10PM
Docklands, Melbourne
St Kilda				Gold Coast

graft		59.7attack -10.1 defence -13.2 net -23.3		42.7attack -23.9 defence -16.3 net -40.3		GCO ✈
par		95.2STK Att -10.1 –GCO Def +16.3 Travel +6.0 Baseline 83.0 Par 95.2		66.3GCO Att -23.9 –STK Def +13.2 Travel -6.0 Baseline 83.0 Par 66.3		STK 29.0
Γ line		91.4		69.7		STK 21.7

	30+	win	draw		win	30+
%	40.6	73.0	1.0		26.0	7.0	%
	37.5	score 100+				12.0

Sun 24 Mar, 03:20PM
Sydney Showground
GWS Giants				Essendon

graft		95.6attack +4.2 defence +8.4 net +12.6		91.9attack +7.0 defence +1.9 net +8.9		ESS ✈
par		91.3GWS Att +4.2 –ESS Def -1.9 Travel +6.0 Baseline 83.0 Par 91.3		75.5ESS Att +7.0 –GWS Def -8.4 Travel -6.0 Baseline 83.0 Par 75.5		GWS 15.8
Γ line		88.5		76.6		GWS 11.8

	30+	win	draw		win	30+
%	30.4	62.7	1.1		36.2	11.9	%
	33.3	score 100+				18.6

Sun 24 Mar, 06:20PM
Perth Stadium
Fremantle				North Melb

graft		57.5attack -15.2 defence -10.2 net -25.4		88.2attack +4.6 defence +0.6 net +5.2		NME ✈
par		73.2FRE Att -15.2 –NME Def -0.6 Travel +6.0 Baseline 83.0 Par 73.2		91.8NME Att +4.6 –FRE Def +10.2 Travel -6.0 Baseline 83.0 Par 91.8		NME 18.6
Γ line		74.9		88.9		NME 14.0

	30+	win	draw		win	30+
%	10.7	33.9	1.1		65.0	32.4	%
	16.8	score 100+				33.9

AFL Round 2

Thu 28 Mar, 07:20PM
Melbourne Cricket Ground
Richmond				Collingwood

graft		104.5attack +11.4 defence +10.0 net +21.5		99.2attack +8.3 defence +8.0 net +16.2
par		86.5RIC Att +11.4 –COL Def -8.0 Travel +0.0 Baseline 83.0 Par 86.5		81.2COL Att +8.3 –RIC Def -10.0 Travel +0.0 Baseline 83.0 Par 81.2		RIC 5.2
Γ line		84.9		80.9		RIC 3.9

	30+	win	draw		win	30+
%	23.1	53.9	1.1		45.0	17.0	%
	28.5	score 100+				23.5

Fri 29 Mar, 07:50PM
Sydney Cricket Ground
Sydney				Adelaide

graft		87.0attack -2.6 defence +6.6 net +4.0		84.3attack +0.6 defence +0.7 net +1.3		ADE ✈
par		85.7SYD Att -2.6 –ADE Def -0.7 Travel +6.0 Baseline 83.0 Par 85.7		70.9ADE Att +0.6 –SYD Def -6.6 Travel -6.0 Baseline 83.0 Par 70.9		SYD 14.7
Γ line		84.3		73.2		SYD 11.1

	30+	win	draw		win	30+
%	29.1	62.1	1.1		36.8	11.8	%
	27.7	score 100+				15.1

Sat 30 Mar, 04:35PM
Docklands, Melbourne
Essendon				St Kilda

graft		91.9attack +7.0 defence +1.9 net +8.9		59.7attack -10.1 defence -13.2 net -23.3
par		103.2ESS Att +7.0 –STK Def +13.2 Travel +0.0 Baseline 83.0 Par 103.2		71.0STK Att -10.1 –ESS Def -1.9 Travel +0.0 Baseline 83.0 Par 71.0		ESS 32.2
Γ line		97.4		73.3		ESS 24.1

	30+	win	draw		win	30+
%	43.5	74.6	0.9		24.4	6.7	%
	46.2	score 100+				15.2

Sat 30 Mar, 05:10PM
Adelaide Oval
Port Adelaide				Carlton

graft		94.1attack -1.7 defence +12.8 net +11.1		41.5attack -20.9 defence -20.6 net -41.5		CAR ✈
par		108.0PAD Att -1.7 –CAR Def +20.6 Travel +6.0 Baseline 83.0 Par 108.0		43.3CAR Att -20.9 –PAD Def -12.8 Travel -6.0 Baseline 83.0 Par 43.3		PAD 64.6
Γ line		101.0		52.5		PAD 48.5

	30+	win	draw		win	30+
%	70.9	92.4	0.4		7.2	1.1	%
	51.4	score 100+				2.8

Sat 30 Mar, 07:25PM
Kardina Park, Geelong
Geelong				Melbourne

graft		107.2attack +8.7 defence +15.6 net +24.2		98.6attack +14.5 defence +1.2 net +15.6
par		90.5GEE Att +8.7 –MEL Def -1.2 Travel +0.0 Baseline 83.0 Par 90.5		81.9MEL Att +14.5 –GEE Def -15.6 Travel +0.0 Baseline 83.0 Par 81.9		GEE 8.6
Γ line		87.9		81.4		GEE 6.4

	30+	win	draw		win	30+
%	25.5	56.6	1.1		42.2	15.5	%
	32.5	score 100+				24.1

Sat 30 Mar, 08:10PM
Perth Stadium
West Coast				GWS Giants

graft		91.9attack +4.3 defence +4.6 net +8.9		95.6attack +4.2 defence +8.4 net +12.6		GWS ✈
par		84.8WCE Att +4.3 –GWS Def -8.4 Travel +6.0 Baseline 83.0 Par 84.8		76.6GWS Att +4.2 –WCE Def -4.6 Travel -6.0 Baseline 83.0 Par 76.6		WCE 8.3
Γ line		83.7		77.4		WCE 6.2

	30+	win	draw		win	30+
%	24.8	56.5	1.2		42.3	15.1	%
	26.9	score 100+				19.5

Sun 31 Mar, 01:10PM
Docklands, Melbourne
North Melb				Brisbane

graft		88.2attack +4.6 defence +0.6 net +5.2		77.6attack +0.6 defence -6.0 net -5.4		BRL ✈
par		99.6NME Att +4.6 –BRL Def +6.0 Travel +6.0 Baseline 83.0 Par 99.6		77.0BRL Att +0.6 –NME Def -0.6 Travel -6.0 Baseline 83.0 Par 77.0		NME 22.6
Γ line		94.7		77.8		NME 16.9

	30+	win	draw		win	30+
%	35.9	67.7	1.0		31.3	9.8	%
	42.3	score 100+				19.9

Sun 31 Mar, 03:20PM
Melbourne Cricket Ground
Hawthorn				W Bulldogs

graft		105.5attack +8.4 defence +14.2 net +22.6		66.7attack -8.7 defence -7.6 net -16.3
par		99.0HAW Att +8.4 –WBD Def +7.6 Travel +0.0 Baseline 83.0 Par 99.0		60.2WBD Att -8.7 –HAW Def -14.2 Travel +0.0 Baseline 83.0 Par 60.2		HAW 38.9
Γ line		94.3		65.1		HAW 29.1

	30+	win	draw		win	30+
%	49.0	79.8	0.8		19.4	4.5	%
	41.6	score 100+				8.6

Sun 31 Mar, 04:40PM
Carrara Stadium, Gold Coast
Gold Coast				Fremantle

graft		42.7attack -23.9 defence -16.3 net -40.3		57.5attack -15.2 defence -10.2 net -25.4		FRE ✈
par		75.3GCO Att -23.9 –FRE Def +10.2 Travel +6.0 Baseline 83.0 Par 75.3		78.1FRE Att -15.2 –GCO Def +16.3 Travel -6.0 Baseline 83.0 Par 78.1		FRE 2.8
Γ line		76.5		78.6		FRE 2.1

	30+	win	draw		win	30+
%	17.5	46.9	1.2		51.9	20.8	%
	18.4	score 100+				20.8

AFL Men 2019

GRAFT Ratings

League Ladder

AFL Round 1

AFL Round 2