I haven’t posted too much here during the AFL season, mainly, since I had bedded down the updated systems and was able to continue things as normal through the season there wasn’t too much too discuss about the back-end. But now as the season has wrapped up and the dust has settled it is of […]
Tag: afl
Towards A New Model – Part 3
In previous posts on this matter, I settled on the gamma distribution as the model, as it was a continuous analogue of the poisson curve, and provided a curve that reflected actual real world scores. The next little challenge was to calibrate it against the “par” scores that GRAFT generates. The par scores typically range […]
Offseason Training
What’s been happening lately at GRAFT? Of course, I’ve set up the A-League site, and have been incrementally adding new things. Most recently putting together a SVG graph with the weekly fluctuations in the Elo ratings. As well, I’ve made a some steps towards a decent prediction model. As you’d imagine “football” modelling is very […]
Changing of the Guard
So, that’s the winter sports all wrapped up for the year – at least in theory. We saw Richmond triumphant in a game that saw them break down Adelaide’s vaunted attack while keeping up their own end. In particular, Dustin Martin had a fine game to sweep the treble of the Norm Smith, although like […]
2017 Grand Final Preview and beyond
According to the main GRAFT ratings, we have Richmond rated as 3 points better than Adelaide, but that is based on a home ground advantage since Richmond are playing at their home ground against the interstate team. If you otherwise consider grand finals to be neutral in general, then you would remove the standard 12 […]