Towards A New Model – Part 3

In previous posts on this matter, I settled on the gamma distribution as the model, as it was a continuous analogue of the poisson curve, and provided a curve that reflected actual real world scores. The next little challenge was to calibrate it against the “par” scores that GRAFT generates. The par scores typically range […]

Towards A New Model – Part 1

The past couple of weeks have seen small but significant steps on the development towards the retooling my sim model for AFL. The first thing I had to do was update my historical data from, the AFL Tables scrapings. For that I dragged out my old parsing code which still works, but had to deal […]

Offseason Training

What’s been happening lately at GRAFT? Of course, I’ve set up the A-League site, and have been incrementally adding new things. Most recently putting together a SVG graph with the weekly fluctuations in the Elo ratings. As well, I’ve made a some steps towards a decent prediction model. As you’d imagine “football” modelling is very […]