Midseason Report – 2019

Since we’re at the turning point, with the bye rounds to come, I thought it a good opportunity to whip up a “quick” post on the season as well as GRAFT’s tracking thereof. There’s not much editing in this and it’s mostly subjective opinion though I’ve sandwiched it with some numbers which I would like […]

Post Season Wrap – 2018

I haven’t posted too much here during the AFL season, mainly, since I had bedded down the updated systems and was able to continue things as normal through the season there wasn’t too much too discuss about the back-end. But now as the season has wrapped up and the dust has settled it is of […]

FOO Was Here

OK, after all the tedious talk about statistical distributions and aligning them to real life, I felt like doing a dumb fun post about the TLAs (three-letter acronyms) that I picked out here, with a bit of historicity. Unlike national ISO or IOC codes, there isn’t really any set schema for how the AFL clubs […]

The State of Things

OK, so we’re three weeks into the season, and I’ve put the “new model” into play and publishing the probabilities. While I think the site looks a little cluttered now, I’m pretty happy how it’s working out, both on a game-by-game basis and as far as the sim projections are concerned. The margin of error […]

Towards A New Model – Part 3

In previous posts on this matter, I settled on the gamma distribution as the model, as it was a continuous analogue of the poisson curve, and provided a curve that reflected actual real world scores. The next little challenge was to calibrate it against the “par” scores that GRAFT generates. The par scores typically range […]

Rushed, Behind

It has been a couple of months since the last update, and really there’s not that much to say as far as this website is concerned. As anticipated, I’ve been flat-out with other things, in particular moving house, which is always haunt. Now I’ve settled in enough that I can actually sit down and get […]

Towards A New Model – Part 1

The past couple of weeks have seen small but significant steps on the development towards the retooling my sim model for AFL. The first thing I had to do was update my historical data from, the AFL Tables scrapings. For that I dragged out my old parsing code which still works, but had to deal […]

Hitting the Track

Starting to look at next year’s fixture. No great insights as yet, just basically cleaning up names of stadia and that sort of thing (search and replace Optus Stadium with Perth Stadium, Goombadome with Kardinia Park, that sorta thing) Also stripping down the website gen code for next year. I haven’t started on the revamped […]

Offseason Training

What’s been happening lately at GRAFT? Of course, I’ve set up the A-League site, and have been incrementally adding new things. Most recently putting together a SVG graph with the weekly fluctuations in the Elo ratings. As well, I’ve made a some steps towards a decent prediction model. As you’d imagine “football” modelling is very […]

Summer Diversions

In past years, I probably would’ve moved my focus to other things not related to sport, such as cursing the sun god that gets angrier and angrier every year, but for some reason I’ve decided to broaden the GRAFT umbrella beyond the AFL into other sports, the A-League to begin with. I don’t just do […]