GRAFT Ratings : AFL Men 2024

Welcome back to GRAFT Ratings for 2024.

Updated fixture times. Note this does not change the ratings or simulations.

Full Fixture

Data files: Tips CSV | Ranking CSV | Projections CSV

Sporadic communication: mastodon.social/@graftratings

Tips correct: 110 / 162 (67.9%)
Correct by round: 2 6 6 4 9 4 4 8 5 6 5 7 3 5 6 6 7 4 7 6
GRAFT Margin of Error: 26.1
Mean score: 84.4 - Score 100+: 89 (27%)
Mean margin: 30.3 - Goal or less: 33 - Ten goals or more: 22 - Wins with less scoring shots: 24
Flips: 13 - post-match ratings flip GRAFT's pre-game prediction

Club Profiles

Club Ratings

ratingnetattackdefenceswingxwinsoff tend
1 SYD 110.2+26.8+17.1 +9.7 -0.1 17.5 +7.4
2 BRL 99.7+16.3+13.9 +2.4 +0.1▲1 14.7+11.5
3 CAR 97.6+14.2+15.7 -1.5 -2.8▼1 15.3+17.2
4 WBD 96.9+13.4 +6.8 +6.7 +4.9▲2 12.8 +0.1
5 FRE 95.3+11.8 +5.9 +5.9 +3.1 14.7 +0.1
6 GWS 92.4 +9.0 +4.4 +4.6 +2.0▲1 13.4 -0.2
7 GEE 89.3 +5.9 +6.1 -0.2 -4.9▼3 14.1 +6.3
8 ADE 89.3 +5.9 +4.8 +1.1 +0.2 9.8 +3.7
9 HAW 89.1 +5.6 +1.2 +4.5 +7.1▲4 12.7 -3.3
10 PAD 84.3 +0.8 +1.4 -0.6 -0.1▲1 12.9 +2.0
11 MEL 81.9 -1.6 -4.7 +3.1 -3.1▼1 12.4 -7.9
12 STK 81.4 -2.0-11.5 +9.4 +3.0▲2 9.5-20.9
13 GCO 81.3 -2.1 -2.0 -0.2 -2.0▼1 11.7 -1.8
14 COL 79.7 -3.7 +1.6 -5.2 -7.1▼5 11.2 +6.8
15 ESS 77.0 -6.4 -1.0 -5.4 -0.2 12.5 +4.4
16 NME 56.1-27.3 -9.6-17.7 +2.8▲1 3.9 +8.0
17 RIC 54.8-28.6-12.2-16.4 +0.1▼1 3.7 +4.2
18 WCE 45.6-37.9-16.5-21.3 -3.0 4.1 +4.8

Ladder

pwdlptspfpa%amformnx
1 SYD 1814-45618501299142.4+30.6WBD
2 CAR 1812-64817941567114.5+12.6PAD
3 BRL 1811164616841415119.0+14.9GCO
4 FRE 1811164615441329116.2+11.9WCE
5 GWS 1811-74416211445112.2+9.8MEL
6 GEE 1811-74416381533106.8+5.8NME
7 PAD 1811-74415641475106.0+4.9CAR
8 ESS 181017421535155598.7-1.1STK
9 WBD 1810-84016661415117.7+13.9SYD
10 MEL 1810-84014181398101.4+1.1GWS
11 HAW 1810-84014711469100.1+0.1ADE
12 GCO 189-93615291484103.0+2.5BRL
13 COL 18828361546157198.4-1.4RIC
14 ADE 1871103015041436104.7+3.8HAW
15 STK 187-11281319136596.6-2.6ESS
16 WCE 183-15121211177868.1-31.5FRE
17 NME 182-1681278195765.3-37.7GEE
18 RIC 182-1681176185763.3-37.8COL

Projections

wins%firsttop 2top 4p 5-8top 8spoon
1 SYD 17.6138.6 94.3 98.5 99.9 0.1100.0-
2 CAR 15.3115.6 2.8 47.1 84.4 14.6 99.0-
3 BRL 14.7118.3 1.5 22.2 66.3 29.3 95.6-
4 FRE 14.7116.2 1.1 19.6 62.7 33.0 95.7-
5 GEE 14.1108.9 0.1 6.7 38.4 52.9 91.3-
6 GWS 13.4108.9 0.1 3.4 20.3 53.3 73.6-
7 WBD 12.8115.5 0.0 0.8 10.1 53.6 63.7-
8 PAD 12.9101.6 0.0 0.9 6.6 38.7 45.4-
9 HAW 12.7101.3- 0.3 4.0 37.3 41.3-
10 ESS 12.5 96.8 0.0 0.3 3.9 33.2 37.1-
11 MEL 12.4100.6- 0.1 2.5 29.9 32.4-
12 GCO 11.7103.3-- 0.8 18.5 19.3-
13 COL 11.2 97.1- 0.0 0.1 5.0 5.1-
14 ADE 9.8102.7--- 0.5 0.5-
15 STK 9.5 97.4--- 0.1 0.1-
16 WCE 4.1 69.0----- 23.3
17 NME 3.9 69.5----- 30.3
18 RIC 3.7 67.4----- 46.4
Run with last game played: R19 CAR v NME 21 Jul
SYD110.2 BRL99.7 CAR97.6 WBD96.9 FRE95.3 GWS92.4 GEE89.3 ADE89.3 HAW89.1 PAD84.3 MEL81.9 STK81.4 GCO81.3 COL79.7 ESS77.0 NME56.1 RIC54.8 WCE45.6

AFL Round 19 : 19-21 July

Docklands Stadium, MelbourneFri 19 Jul · 7:40pm
rtparwinresultswingnew rt
Essendon-6.281.050%1711113-0.2-6.4
Adelaide+5.680.849%1713115+0.2+5.9
Tip: Essendon by 0Adelaide by 2
Sydney ShowgroundSat 20 Jul · 1:45pm
rtparwinresultswingnew rt
GWS Giants+7.095.365%14 589+2.0+9.0
Gold Coast-0.276.134% 61450-2.0-2.1
Tip: GWS Giants by 19GWS Giants by 39
Docklands Stadium, MelbourneSat 20 Jul · 1:45pm
rtparwinresultswingnew rt
St Kilda-5.095.982%1711113+3.0-2.0
West Coast-34.854.118% 6 541-3.0-37.9
Tip: St Kilda by 42St Kilda by 72
Melbourne Cricket GroundSat 20 Jul · 4:35pm
rtparwinresultswingnew rt
Hawthorn-1.579.045%2013133+7.1+5.6
Collingwood+3.483.954% 91367-7.1-3.7
Tip: Collingwood by 5Hawthorn by 66
Kardinia Park, GeelongSat 20 Jul · 7:30pm
rtparwinresultswingnew rt
Geelong+10.891.651% 7 648-4.9+5.9
Western Bulldogs+8.589.348%131795+4.9+13.4
Tip: Geelong by 2Western Bulldogs by 47
Adelaide OvalSat 20 Jul · 7:30pm
rtparwinresultswingnew rt
Port Adelaide+0.9105.180%1620116-0.1+0.8
Richmond-28.763.519%11 975+0.1-28.6
Tip: Port Adelaide by 42Port Adelaide by 41
The Gabba, BrisbaneSun 21 Jul · 1:10pm
rtparwinresultswingnew rt
Brisbane Lions+16.297.351%111379+0.1+16.3
Sydney Swans+26.895.948%111177-0.1+26.8
Tip: Brisbane Lions by 1Brisbane Lions by 2
Perth StadiumSun 21 Jul · 3:20pm
rtparwinresultswingnew rt
Fremantle+8.886.366%1714116+3.1+11.8
Melbourne+1.567.033%10 666-3.1-1.6
Tip: Fremantle by 19Fremantle by 50
Docklands Stadium, MelbourneSun 21 Jul · 4:40pm
rtparwinresultswingnew rt
Carlton+17.0119.282%1611107-2.8+14.2
North Melbourne-30.172.117%14 488+2.8-27.3
Tip: Carlton by 47Carlton by 19

AFL Round 20 : 26-28 July

Docklands Stadium, MelbourneFri 26 Jul · 7:40pm
rtparwinresultswingnew rt
Carlton+14.2105.769%
Port Adelaide+0.880.330%
Tip: Carlton by 25
Bellerive Oval, HobartSat 27 Jul · 1:45pm
rtparwinresultswingnew rt
North Melbourne-27.374.025%
Geelong+5.9107.275%
Tip: Geelong by 33
Carrara Stadium, Gold CoastSat 27 Jul · 4:35pm
rtparwinresultswingnew rt
Gold Coast-2.179.135%
Brisbane Lions+16.397.564%
Tip: Brisbane Lions by 18
Docklands Stadium, MelbourneSat 27 Jul · 4:35pm
rtparwinresultswingnew rt
St Kilda-2.077.453%
Essendon-6.473.046%
Tip: St Kilda by 4
Melbourne Cricket GroundSat 27 Jul · 7:30pm
rtparwinresultswingnew rt
Melbourne-1.680.251%
GWS Giants+9.078.748%
Tip: Melbourne by 1
Perth StadiumSat 27 Jul · 8:10pm
rtparwinresultswingnew rt
Fremantle+11.8110.785%
West Coast-37.961.015%
Tip: Fremantle by 50
Melbourne Cricket GroundSun 28 Jul · 1:10pm
rtparwinresultswingnew rt
Collingwood-3.7101.469%
Richmond-28.676.530%
Tip: Collingwood by 25
Sydney Cricket GroundSun 28 Jul · 3:20pm
rtparwinresultswingnew rt
Sydney Swans+26.899.869%
Western Bulldogs+13.474.530%
Tip: Sydney Swans by 25
Adelaide OvalSun 28 Jul · 4:10pm
rtparwinresultswingnew rt
Adelaide+5.989.860%
Hawthorn+5.677.539%
Tip: Adelaide by 12