AFL | GRAFT Ratings

Thank you for following GRAFT Ratings through 2024.

Not the best year prediction-wise on this end but the actual footy made up for it.

Data files: Tips CSV | Ranking CSV | Projections CSV

Sporadic communication: mastodon.social/@graftratings

Tips correct: 141 / 216 (65.3%)

Correct by round: 2 6 6 4 9 4 4 8 5 6 5 7 3 5 6 6 7 4 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 3 0 1 1
GRAFT Margin of Error: 27.2
Mean score: 84.4 - Score 100+: 108 (25%)
Mean margin: 31.2 - Goal or less: 44 - Ten goals or more: 31 - Wins with less scoring shots: 31
Flips: 18 - post-match ratings flip GRAFT's pre-game prediction

Club Profiles

Club Ratings

		rating	net	attack	defence	swing		xwins	off tend
1	HAW	113.9	+30.5	+15.7	+14.7	-1.5		14.0	+1.0
2	BRL	109.6	+26.2	+15.9	+10.3	+5.3	▲1	14.5	+5.7
3	WBD	104.3	+20.9	+9.4	+11.5	-3.2	▼1	14.0	-2.1
4	GEE	100.7	+17.2	+15.6	+1.6	-2.3		15.0	+14.0
5	GWS	92.8	+9.4	+6.3	+3.1	-1.0	▲1	15.0	+3.1
6	SYD	92.2	+8.8	+7.2	+1.6	-5.3	▼1	17.0	+5.6
7	PAD	91.1	+7.6	-1.2	+8.8	-2.2		16.0	-10.0
8	COL	89.2	+5.8	+3.4	+2.3	+4.7		13.0	+1.1
9	FRE	88.7	+5.3	+2.9	+2.3	-2.3		12.5	+0.6
10	CAR	88.3	+4.9	+3.7	+1.2	-0.4		13.0	+2.4
11	ADE	85.7	+2.3	+4.7	-2.5	-1.2		8.5	+7.2
12	STK	84.1	+0.6	-7.1	+7.8	+0.8		11.0	-14.9
13	MEL	81.1	-2.4	-5.5	+3.1	-4.7		11.0	-8.6
14	GCO	73.5	-10.0	-5.3	-4.7	+1.9		11.0	-0.6
15	ESS	71.7	-11.8	-4.9	-6.9	+2.6		11.5	+2.1
16	RIC	48.3	-35.1	-15.7	-19.5	-1.9		2.0	+3.8
17	WCE	44.0	-39.4	-14.3	-25.1	-4.1		5.0	+10.8
18	NME	42.6	-40.8	-14.0	-26.8	-6.8		3.0	+12.8

Ladder

		p	w	d	l	pts	pf	pa	%	am
1	SYD	23	17	-	6	68	2242	1769	126.7	+20.6
2	PAD	23	16	-	7	64	2011	1752	114.8	+11.3
3	GEE	23	15	-	8	60	2164	1928	112.2	+10.3
4	GWS	23	15	-	8	60	2034	1864	109.1	+7.4
5	BRL	23	14	1	8	58	2130	1747	121.9	+16.7
6	WBD	23	14	-	9	56	2171	1736	125.1	+18.9
7	HAW	23	14	-	9	56	2090	1763	118.5	+14.2
8	CAR	23	13	-	10	52	2151	1952	110.2	+8.7
9	COL	23	12	2	9	52	1991	1943	102.5	+2.1
10	FRE	23	12	1	10	50	1964	1755	111.9	+9.1
11	ESS	23	11	1	11	46	1892	2024	93.5	-5.7
12	STK	23	11	-	12	44	1748	1758	99.4	-0.4
13	GCO	23	11	-	12	44	1925	1943	99.1	-0.8
14	MEL	23	11	-	12	44	1785	1812	98.5	-1.2
15	ADE	23	8	1	14	34	1906	1923	99.1	-0.7
16	WCE	23	5	-	18	20	1594	2339	68.1	-32.4
17	NME	23	3	-	20	12	1619	2550	63.5	-40.5
18	RIC	23	2	-	21	8	1505	2364	63.7	-37.3

Projections

		wins	%	first	top 2	top 4	p 5-8	top 8	spoon
1	SYD	17.0	126.7	100.0	100.0	100.0	-	100.0	-
2	PAD	16.0	114.8	-	100.0	100.0	-	100.0	-
3	GEE	15.0	112.2	-	-	100.0	-	100.0	-
4	GWS	15.0	109.1	-	-	100.0	-	100.0	-
5	BRL	14.5	121.9	-	-	-	100.0	100.0	-
6	WBD	14.0	125.1	-	-	-	100.0	100.0	-
7	HAW	14.0	118.5	-	-	-	100.0	100.0	-
8	CAR	13.0	110.2	-	-	-	100.0	100.0	-
9	COL	13.0	102.5	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	FRE	12.5	111.9	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	ESS	11.5	93.5	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	STK	11.0	99.4	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	GCO	11.0	99.1	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	MEL	11.0	98.5	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	ADE	8.5	99.1	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	WCE	5.0	68.1	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	NME	3.0	63.5	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	RIC	2.0	63.7	-	-	-	-	-	100.0
Run with last game played: R24 FRE v PAD 25 Aug

AFL Finals Week 4 : 28 September

Grand Final
Melbourne Cricket Ground				Sat 28 Sep · 2:30pm
	rt	par	win	result			swing	new rt
Sydney Swans	+14.1	85.4	44%	9	6	60	-5.3	+8.8
Brisbane Lions	+20.9	92.2	55%	18	12	120	+5.3	+26.2
Tip: Brisbane Lions by 7				Brisbane Lions by 60 ✔

AFL Finals Week 3 : 20-21 September

Preliminary Final 1
Sydney Cricket Ground				Fri 20 Sep · 7:40pm
	rt	par	win	result			swing	new rt
Sydney Swans	+11.9	89.2	61%	14	11	95	+2.2	+14.1
Port Adelaide	+9.8	75.1	38%	8	11	59	-2.2	+7.6
Tip: Sydney Swans by 14				Sydney Swans by 36 ✔

Preliminary Final 2
Melbourne Cricket Ground				Sat 21 Sep · 5:15pm
	rt	par	win	result			swing	new rt
Geelong	+19.5	100.4	60%	12	13	85	-2.3	+17.2
Brisbane Lions	+18.6	87.5	39%	14	11	95	+2.3	+20.9
Tip: Geelong by 13				Brisbane Lions by 10 ✘