AFL | GRAFT Ratings

Welcome back to GRAFT Ratings for 2024.

Data files: Tips CSV | Ranking CSV | Projections CSV

Sporadic communication: mastodon.social/@graftratings

Tips correct: 31 / 46 (67.4%)

Correct by round: 2 6 6 4 9 4
GRAFT Margin of Error: 23.1
Mean score: 83.4 - Score 100+: 23 (25%)
Mean margin: 28.5 - Goal or less: 10 - Ten goals or more: 5 - Wins with less scoring shots: 7
Flips: 1 - post-match ratings flip GRAFT's pre-game prediction

Club Profiles

Club Ratings

		rating	net	attack	defence	swing		xwins	off tend
1	MEL	100.8	+17.4	+3.4	+14.0	-4.3		14.9	-10.6
2	BRL	100.5	+17.1	+7.9	+9.2	+4.3	▲2	13.2	-1.4
3	GEE	99.6	+16.2	+11.2	+5.0	+2.6		16.3	+6.2
4	PAD	98.1	+14.7	+11.7	+3.0	-2.6	▼2	14.4	+8.6
5	SYD	95.0	+11.6	+8.4	+3.2	-4.5		14.2	+5.2
6	COL	95.0	+11.5	+5.3	+6.2	-3.2		12.6	-0.8
7	CAR	91.8	+8.3	+4.0	+4.3	-2.1		13.9	-0.4
8	GWS	91.3	+7.9	+8.5	-0.6	-1.5		14.3	+9.1
9	STK	90.5	+7.1	-6.4	+13.5	+1.5		12.4	-19.8
10	ADE	89.0	+5.6	+2.9	+2.7	+2.1	▲1	11.0	+0.3
11	FRE	86.3	+2.9	-7.5	+10.4	+2.6	▲1	12.6	-18.0
12	WBD	84.9	+1.5	-1.8	+3.3	-4.1	▼2	10.8	-5.1
13	ESS	81.1	-2.3	+0.6	-2.9	+4.1	▲2	11.9	+3.5
14	GCO	79.9	-3.5	-2.4	-1.1	+2.9		11.4	-1.4
15	RIC	70.6	-12.8	-6.7	-6.1	-7.2	▼2	7.5	-0.6
16	HAW	61.8	-21.6	-11.4	-10.2	-2.9		6.3	-1.3
17	NME	45.1	-38.4	-11.2	-27.2	-2.6		4.6	+16.0
18	WCE	40.4	-43.0	-18.3	-24.8	+7.2		4.7	+6.5

Ladder

		p	w	d	l	pts	pf	pa	%	am
1	GWS	5	5	-	-	20	540	375	144.0	+33.0
2	GEE	5	5	-	-	20	512	370	138.4	+28.4
3	PAD	5	4	-	1	16	508	363	139.9	+29.0
4	SYD	5	4	-	1	16	500	394	126.9	+21.2
5	MEL	6	4	-	2	16	500	422	118.5	+13.0
6	CAR	5	4	-	1	16	480	410	117.1	+14.0
7	FRE	5	3	-	2	12	390	319	122.3	+14.2
8	GCO	5	3	-	2	12	424	402	105.5	+4.4
9	ESS	5	3	-	2	12	417	459	90.8	-8.4
10	BRL	5	2	-	3	8	421	373	112.9	+9.6
11	WBD	5	2	-	3	8	443	397	111.6	+9.2
12	STK	5	2	-	3	8	375	366	102.5	+1.8
13	COL	5	2	-	3	8	399	454	87.9	-11.0
14	ADE	5	1	-	4	4	328	401	81.8	-14.6
15	RIC	6	1	-	5	4	445	560	79.5	-19.2
16	WCE	5	1	-	4	4	330	508	65.0	-35.6
17	HAW	5	-	-	5	0	319	492	64.8	-34.6
18	NME	5	-	-	5	0	345	611	56.5	-53.2

Projections

		wins	%	first	top 2	top 4	p 5-8	top 8	spoon
1	GEE	16.3	120.7	39.1	58.5	80.0	16.3	96.2	-
2	MEL	15.0	119.3	15.6	33.2	60.0	29.2	89.3	-
3	PAD	14.5	115.5	11.0	24.0	48.1	33.8	82.0	-
4	GWS	14.3	110.2	9.1	20.4	42.7	35.4	78.1	-
5	SYD	14.2	112.1	8.5	19.5	41.8	35.8	77.6	-
6	CAR	13.9	108.5	6.4	14.8	34.3	37.3	71.6	-
7	BRL	13.2	114.5	3.9	10.2	27.2	37.9	65.0	-
8	FRE	12.6	108.0	2.0	5.4	16.4	33.6	49.9	-
9	COL	12.6	106.0	1.6	4.8	15.7	33.4	49.1	-
10	STK	12.4	108.9	1.5	4.5	14.7	32.7	47.4	0.0
11	ESS	11.9	98.0	0.6	2.0	7.4	24.4	31.8	0.0
12	GCO	11.4	98.7	0.4	1.2	4.8	18.7	23.4	0.0
13	ADE	11.0	101.4	0.2	0.7	3.6	16.3	19.8	0.0
14	WBD	10.8	101.8	0.2	0.7	3.4	14.9	18.3	0.0
15	RIC	7.4	85.2	-	0.0	0.0	0.4	0.4	2.6
16	HAW	6.2	79.7	-	-	-	0.1	0.1	10.6
17	NME	4.6	70.7	-	-	-	-	-	41.5
18	WCE	4.6	67.5	-	-	-	-	-	45.2
Run with last game played: R5 WCE v RIC 14 Apr

AFL Round 5 : 11-14 April

Melbourne Cricket Ground				Thu 11 Apr · 7:30pm
	rt	par	win	result			swing	new rt
Melbourne	+21.7	89.5	67%	8	12	60	-4.3	+17.4
Brisbane Lions	+12.8	68.6	32%	12	10	82	+4.3	+17.1
Tip: Melbourne by 21				Brisbane Lions by 22 ✘

Docklands Stadium, Melbourne				Fri 12 Apr · 7:40pm
	rt	par	win	result			swing	new rt
Western Bulldogs	+5.6	88.9	59%	9	13	67	-4.1	+1.5
Essendon	-6.4	76.9	39%	15	6	96	+4.1	-2.3
Tip: Western Bulldogs by 12				Essendon by 29 ✘

Manuka Oval, Canberra				Sat 13 Apr · 1:45pm
	rt	par	win	result			swing	new rt
GWS Giants	+9.3	85.5	63%	11	14	80	-1.5	+7.9
St Kilda	+5.6	69.8	36%	12	7	79	+1.5	+7.1
Tip: GWS Giants by 16				GWS Giants by 1 ✔

Docklands Stadium, Melbourne				Sat 13 Apr · 4:35pm
	rt	par	win	result			swing	new rt
Carlton	+10.4	88.9	65%	14	14	98	-2.1	+8.3
Adelaide	+3.5	70.0	34%	16	4	100	+2.1	+5.6
Tip: Carlton by 19				Adelaide by 2 ✘

Carrara Stadium, Gold Coast				Sat 13 Apr · 7:30pm
	rt	par	win	result			swing	new rt
Gold Coast	-6.4	94.2	69%	16	13	109	+2.9	-3.5
Hawthorn	-18.7	69.8	30%	8	8	56	-2.9	-21.6
Tip: Gold Coast by 24				Gold Coast by 53 ✔

Adelaide Oval				Sat 13 Apr · 7:30pm
	rt	par	win	result			swing	new rt
Port Adelaide	+17.3	96.8	72%	9	12	66	-2.6	+14.7
Fremantle	+0.3	67.8	27%	9	9	63	+2.6	+2.9
Tip: Port Adelaide by 29				Port Adelaide by 3 ✔

Kardinia Park, Geelong				Sun 14 Apr · 1:00pm
	rt	par	win	result			swing	new rt
Geelong	+13.6	117.5	84%	21	13	139	+2.6	+16.2
North Melbourne	-35.8	68.1	16%	10	4	64	-2.6	-38.4
Tip: Geelong by 49				Geelong by 75 ✔

Perth Stadium				Sun 14 Apr · 4:00pm
	rt	par	win	result			swing	new rt
West Coast	-50.2	69.3	25%	16	13	109	+7.2	-43.0
Richmond	-5.7	101.8	75%	10	10	70	-7.2	-12.8
Tip: Richmond by 33				West Coast by 39 ✘

AFL Round 6 : 18-21 April

Docklands Stadium, Melbourne				Thu 18 Apr · 7:30pm
	rt	par	win	result	swing	new rt
St Kilda	+7.1	73.7	54%
Western Bulldogs	+1.5	68.2	44%
Tip: St Kilda by 6

Adelaide Oval				Fri 19 Apr · 7:40pm
	rt	par	win	result	swing	new rt
Adelaide	+5.6	95.2	66%
Essendon	-2.3	75.3	33%
Tip: Adelaide by 20

Melbourne Cricket Ground				Sat 20 Apr · 1:45pm
	rt	par	win	result	swing	new rt
Collingwood	+11.5	91.8	57%
Port Adelaide	+14.7	82.9	42%
Tip: Collingwood by 9

Docklands Stadium, Melbourne				Sat 20 Apr · 4:35pm
	rt	par	win	result	swing	new rt
Carlton	+8.3	94.0	60%
GWS Giants	+7.9	81.5	39%
Tip: Carlton by 12

The Gabba, Brisbane				Sat 20 Apr · 7:30pm
	rt	par	win	result	swing	new rt
Brisbane Lions	+17.1	92.3	60%
Geelong	+16.2	79.4	39%
Tip: Brisbane Lions by 13

Perth Stadium				Sat 20 Apr · 8:10pm
	rt	par	win	result	swing	new rt
West Coast	-43.0	54.7	16%
Fremantle	+2.9	100.7	84%
Tip: Fremantle by 46

Sydney Cricket Ground				Sun 21 Apr · 1:00pm
	rt	par	win	result	swing	new rt
Sydney Swans	+11.6	98.9	71%
Gold Coast	-3.5	71.8	28%
Tip: Sydney Swans by 27

Docklands Stadium, Melbourne				Sun 21 Apr · 4:00pm
	rt	par	win	result	swing	new rt
North Melbourne	-38.4	82.4	36%
Hawthorn	-21.6	99.2	63%
Tip: Hawthorn by 17