GRAFT Ratings : AFL Men 2024

Welcome back to GRAFT Ratings for 2024.

Updated fixture times. Note this does not change the ratings or simulations.

Full Fixture

Data files: Tips CSV | Ranking CSV | Projections CSV

Sporadic communication: mastodon.social/@graftratings

Tips correct: 110 / 163 (67.5%)
Correct by round: 2 6 6 4 9 4 4 8 5 6 5 7 3 5 6 6 7 4 7 6 0
GRAFT Margin of Error: 26.2
Mean score: 84.3 - Score 100+: 89 (27%)
Mean margin: 30.2 - Goal or less: 33 - Ten goals or more: 22 - Wins with less scoring shots: 24
Flips: 13 - post-match ratings flip GRAFT's pre-game prediction

Club Profiles

ADE
BRL
CAR
COL
ESS
FRE
GEE
GCO
GWS
HAW
MEL
NME
PAD
RIC
STK
SYD
WBD
WCE

Club Ratings

ratingnetattackdefenceswingxwinsoff tend
1 SYD 110.2+26.8+17.1 +9.7 -0.1 17.5 +7.4
2 BRL 99.7+16.3+13.9 +2.4 +0.1 14.7+11.5
3 WBD 96.9+13.4 +6.8 +6.7 +4.9▲1 12.8 +0.1
4 FRE 95.3+11.8 +5.9 +5.9 +3.1▲1 14.6 +0.1
5 CAR 93.7+10.2+11.6 -1.4 -3.9▼2 14.5+13.0
6 GWS 92.4 +9.0 +4.4 +4.6 +2.0 13.4 -0.2
7 GEE 89.3 +5.9 +6.1 -0.2 -4.9 14.1 +6.3
8 ADE 89.3 +5.9 +4.8 +1.1 +0.2 9.8 +3.7
9 HAW 89.1 +5.6 +1.2 +4.5 +7.1 12.8 -3.3
10 PAD 88.2 +4.8 +1.3 +3.5 +3.9 13.7 -2.2
11 MEL 81.9 -1.6 -4.7 +3.1 -3.1 12.4 -7.9
12 STK 81.4 -2.0-11.5 +9.4 +3.0 9.5-20.9
13 GCO 81.3 -2.1 -2.0 -0.2 -2.0 11.7 -1.8
14 COL 79.7 -3.7 +1.6 -5.2 -7.1 11.2 +6.8
15 ESS 77.0 -6.4 -1.0 -5.4 -0.2 12.5 +4.4
16 NME 56.1-27.3 -9.6-17.7 +2.8 3.9 +8.0
17 RIC 54.8-28.6-12.2-16.4 +0.1 3.7 +4.2
18 WCE 45.6-37.9-16.5-21.3 -3.0 4.1 +4.8

Ladder

pwdlptspfpa%amformnx
1 SYD 1814-45618501299142.4+30.6WBD
2 CAR 1912-74818591646112.9+11.2COL
3 PAD 1912-74816431540106.7+5.4SYD
4 BRL 1811164616841415119.0+14.9GCO
5 FRE 1811164615441329116.2+11.9WCE
6 GWS 1811-74416211445112.2+9.8MEL
7 GEE 1811-74416381533106.8+5.8NME
8 ESS 181017421535155598.7-1.1STK
9 WBD 1810-84016661415117.7+13.9SYD
10 MEL 1810-84014181398101.4+1.1GWS
11 HAW 1810-84014711469100.1+0.1ADE
12 GCO 189-93615291484103.0+2.5BRL
13 COL 18828361546157198.4-1.4RIC
14 ADE 1871103015041436104.7+3.8HAW
15 STK 187-11281319136596.6-2.6ESS
16 WCE 183-15121211177868.1-31.5FRE
17 NME 182-1681278195765.3-37.7GEE
18 RIC 182-1681176185763.3-37.8COL

Projections

wins%firsttop 2top 4p 5-8top 8spoon
1 SYD 17.5138.5 96.0 99.0 99.9 0.1100.0-
2 BRL 14.7118.3 1.7 30.9 67.3 27.6 94.9-
3 CAR 14.5113.3 0.3 21.0 63.2 32.9 96.2-
4 FRE 14.6116.1 1.6 26.5 63.0 32.0 95.1-
5 GEE 14.2109.0 0.2 10.9 40.6 49.1 89.7-
6 PAD 13.7104.0 0.1 3.9 19.2 53.0 72.2-
7 GWS 13.4108.9 0.1 5.3 21.4 49.0 70.5-
8 WBD 12.8115.5 0.0 1.2 11.8 48.3 60.2-
9 HAW 12.8101.5 0.0 0.5 4.9 33.6 38.6-
10 ESS 12.5 96.8 0.0 0.6 4.5 29.4 33.8-
11 MEL 12.4100.4- 0.2 3.0 24.7 27.7-
12 GCO 11.7103.3- 0.0 0.8 15.4 16.3-
13 COL 11.2 97.2-- 0.1 4.4 4.5-
14 ADE 9.8102.6--- 0.3 0.3-
15 STK 9.5 97.6--- 0.1 0.1-
16 WCE 4.1 69.1----- 23.0
17 NME 3.9 69.5----- 31.0
18 RIC 3.7 67.4----- 46.0
Run with last game played: R20 CAR v PAD 26 Jul
SYD110.2 BRL99.7 WBD96.9 FRE95.3 CAR93.7 GWS92.4 GEE89.3 ADE89.3 HAW89.1 PAD88.2 MEL81.9 STK81.4 GCO81.3 COL79.7 ESS77.0 NME56.1 RIC54.8 WCE45.6

AFL Round 20 : 26-28 July

Docklands Stadium, MelbourneFri 26 Jul · 7:40pm
rtparwinresultswingnew rt
Carlton+14.2105.769% 91165-3.9+10.2
Port Adelaide+0.880.330%111379+3.9+4.8
Tip: Carlton by 25Port Adelaide by 14 ✘
Bellerive Oval, HobartSat 27 Jul · 1:45pm
rtparwinresultswingnew rt
North Melbourne-27.374.025%
Geelong+5.9107.275%
Tip: Geelong by 33
Carrara Stadium, Gold CoastSat 27 Jul · 4:35pm
rtparwinresultswingnew rt
Gold Coast-2.179.135%
Brisbane Lions+16.397.564%
Tip: Brisbane Lions by 18
Docklands Stadium, MelbourneSat 27 Jul · 4:35pm
rtparwinresultswingnew rt
St Kilda-2.077.453%
Essendon-6.473.046%
Tip: St Kilda by 4
Melbourne Cricket GroundSat 27 Jul · 7:30pm
rtparwinresultswingnew rt
Melbourne-1.680.251%
GWS Giants+9.078.748%
Tip: Melbourne by 1
Perth StadiumSat 27 Jul · 8:10pm
rtparwinresultswingnew rt
Fremantle+11.8110.785%
West Coast-37.961.015%
Tip: Fremantle by 50
Melbourne Cricket GroundSun 28 Jul · 1:10pm
rtparwinresultswingnew rt
Collingwood-3.7101.469%
Richmond-28.676.530%
Tip: Collingwood by 25
Sydney Cricket GroundSun 28 Jul · 3:20pm
rtparwinresultswingnew rt
Sydney Swans+26.899.869%
Western Bulldogs+13.474.530%
Tip: Sydney Swans by 25
Adelaide OvalSun 28 Jul · 4:10pm
rtparwinresultswingnew rt
Adelaide+5.989.860%
Hawthorn+5.677.539%
Tip: Adelaide by 12

AFL Round 21 : 2-4 August

Docklands Stadium, MelbourneFri 02 Aug · 7:15pm
rtparwinresultswingnew rt
Western Bulldogs+13.487.062%
Melbourne-1.672.037%
Tip: Western Bulldogs by 15
Perth StadiumFri 02 Aug · 8:30pm
rtparwinresultswingnew rt
West Coast-37.973.131%
Gold Coast-2.196.868%
Tip: Gold Coast by 24
Docklands Stadium, MelbourneSat 03 Aug · 1:45pm
rtparwinresultswingnew rt
North Melbourne-27.390.251%
Richmond-28.688.948%
Tip: North Melbourne by 1
Kardinia Park, GeelongSat 03 Aug · 4:35pm
rtparwinresultswingnew rt
Geelong+5.994.559%
Adelaide+5.982.540%
Tip: Geelong by 12
Melbourne Cricket GroundSat 03 Aug · 7:30pm
rtparwinresultswingnew rt
Collingwood-3.786.438%
Carlton+10.2100.361%
Tip: Carlton by 14
Adelaide OvalSat 03 Aug · 7:30pm
rtparwinresultswingnew rt
Port Adelaide+4.881.041%
Sydney Swans+26.891.058%
Tip: Sydney Swans by 10
Manuka Oval, CanberraSun 04 Aug · 1:10pm
rtparwinresultswingnew rt
GWS Giants+9.089.462%
Hawthorn+5.674.037%
Tip: GWS Giants by 15
Melbourne Cricket GroundSun 04 Aug · 3:20pm
rtparwinresultswingnew rt
Essendon-6.482.644%
Fremantle+11.888.855%
Tip: Fremantle by 6
Docklands Stadium, MelbourneSun 04 Aug · 4:40pm
rtparwinresultswingnew rt
St Kilda-2.075.644%
Brisbane Lions+16.381.955%
Tip: Brisbane Lions by 6

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